Monday, 9 October 2006

Tech predicting

A couple of weeks ago, David Pogue, in the NYT's Circuits newsletter, wrote about the time Apple wasn't a media darling. He quoted from reports back then:
* Fortune, 2/19/1996:
By the time you read this story, the quirky cult company…will end its wild ride as an independent enterprise.

* Time Magazine, 2/5/96:
One day Apple was a major technology company with assets to make any self respecting techno-conglomerate salivate. The next day Apple was a chaotic mess without a strategic vision and certainly no future.

* BusinessWeek, 10/16/95:
Having underforecast demand, the company has a $1 billion-plus order backlog….The only alternative: to merge with a company with the marketing and financial clout to help Apple survive the switch to a software-based company. The most likely candidate, many think, is IBM Corp.

* A Forrester Research analyst, 1/25/96 (quoted in, of all places, The New York Times):
Whether they stand alone or are acquired, Apple as we know it is cooked. It’s so classic. It’s so sad.

* Nathan Myhrvold (Microsoft’s chief technology officer, 6/97:
The NeXT purchase is too little too late. Apple is already dead.

* Wired, 101 Ways to Save Apple, 6/97:
1. Admit it. You’re out of the hardware game.

* BusinessWeek, 2/5/96:
There was so much magic in Apple Computer in the early ’80s that it is hard to believe that it may fade away. Apple went from hip to has-been in just 19 years.

* Fortune, 2/19/1996:
Apple’s erratic performance has given it the reputation on Wall Street of a stock a long-term investor would probably avoid.

* The Economist, 2/23/95:Apple could hang on for years, gamely trying to slow the decline, but few expect it to make such a mistake. Instead it seems to have two options. The first is to break itself up, selling the hardware side. The second is to sell the company outright.

* The Financial Times, 7/11/97:
Apple no longer plays a leading role in the $200 billion personal computer industry. ‘The idea that they’re going to go back to the past to hit a big home run…is delusional,’ says Dave Winer, a software developer.

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